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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1235 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to report on results of the aircraft reconnaissance mission. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico all morning. Data from the mission indicate that the circulation is highly elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Therefore the system is not a tropical cyclone and advisories are not being initiated at this time. However, the low still has the potential to become a tropical storm at any time before it reaches the Texas coast sometime tomorrow. The aircraft data do indicate that the system is producing winds of 45 mph or so to the east of the elongated trough axis, and interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the middle and upper Texas coast, and possible in extreme southwestern Louisiana, Monday night and Tuesday. The system is also likely to bring heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana. For additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent